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Av Lars Olsson - 4 februari 2011 18:29

Fredagens protester runt om i Egypten blev som väntat omfattande och intensiva, förstärkta av Muslimska brödraskapet och tillskyndande oppositionspolitiker som Mohamed ElBaradei.

President Hosni Mubaraks regim har eskalerat sina motåtgärder.

Sociala medier som Facebook och Twitter har blockerats.

Natten till fredagen stängdes stora delar av internet.

Igår sköt polis med tårgas och gummikulor. Myndigheter beordrade mobiloperatörer att släcka nätverken. Journalister arresterades. Nattligt utegångsförbud utlystes och ElBaradei sattes i husarrest.

Regimen har kastat handskarna och skyr få medel för att stoppa det som upproret handlar om: yttrandefrihet, informationsfrihet, demokrati.

Lika uppenbart är att kommentarerna från en del av världens politiska ledare så här långt har präglats av återhållsamhet och taktik. Ingen vill hamna på fel sida i historien.

Även arabvärlden rymmer stor frihetslängtan. Det är dags att släppa den lös.

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Av Lars Olsson - 4 februari 2011 18:28

Det finns en bättre fråga.

Vad gjorde Centern rätt?

Många missar har valanalysgruppen hittat.

Det var oklart vad partiet vill. Förnyelsen har avstannat. Förtroendet för Centern minskade i takt med att partiledaren Maud Olofsson, i egenskap av näringsminister, trasslade in sig i Saabs och Vattenfalls inre liv. Partiet tappade bort samhällskritiken. Och så vidare.

Nu föreslås en vice partiledare. Idén rymmer kritik både mot Olofsson, som inte räckt till i parti ledarrollen, och mot hennes omgivning som är svag och osynlig.

Däremot föreslås inte att Maud Olofsson byts ut. Nej, hur skulle det se ut? En favorit att ersätta henne är partiets stjärnskott Annie Johansson. Som varit ordförande i valanalysgruppen ...

Intressantast är kanske att gruppen slår fast att Centern, som i rapporten kallas ”de gröna liberalerna”, måste sluta vara ett intresseparti och bli idéburet.

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Av Lars Olsson - 4 februari 2011 18:27

De flesta har noterat det men ingen tycks inse vidden av det:

Libanons regering håller på att tas över av en terrororganisation.

Hizbollah, Guds parti, står redo att ta klivet från att vara en stat i staten till att bli staten. Och förvandla Libanon till en iransk satellit.

Först fällde Hizbollah den libanesiska regeringen genom att låta sina ministrar avgå.

Orsaken var att premiärminister Saad al-Hariri vägrade ta avstånd från den FN-tribunal som inom kort väntas väcka åtal mot flera Hizbollahmedlemmar för inblandning i mordet 2005 på landets förre premiärminister Rafiq al-Hariri.

Saad al-Hariri, ledare för den västvänliga och av Saudiarabien uppbackade 14 mars-rörelsen, kunde inte acceptera att hans fars mördare skulle gå fria.

I veckan nominerades istället miljardären Najib Mikati, god vän med Syriens diktator Bashar al-Assad, till premiärminister. Mikati fick stöd av 65 ledamöter av 128 i Libanons parlament, tack vare att druserna, ledda av Walid Jumblatt, bytt sida och sällat sig till Hizbollahlägret. Ett sidbyte föranlett av en kylig maktkalkyl och – förmodligen – omtanke om den personliga säkerheten.

I Libanon har den som sätter käppar i hjulet för Hizbollah och rörelsens uppbackare Syrien och Iran en tendens att gå en plötslig och våldsam död till mötes.

Enligt en komplicerad maktdelningsprincip avsedd att hålla samman det etniskt och religiöst splittrade landet skall presidenten i Libanon vara kristen, premiärministern sunnimuslim och parlamentets talman shiamuslim.

Nomineringen av Mikati innebär att det shiamuslimska Gudspartiet avgör vilken sunnimuslim som blir premiärminister. Hizbollahledaren Hassan Nasrallah, inte vald av någon, har i praktiken sista ordet i Libanon.

Schackbrädet har kastats över ända.

För Hizbollah vill till varje pris stoppa FN-tribunalen. Om det slås fast att Hizbollah mördat sunnimuslimernas politiske ledare, den man som mer än någon annan kom att symbolisera Libanons återuppbyggnad efter det för­ödande, femton år långa inbördeskriget, blir konsekvenserna svår­överskådliga.

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Av Lars Olsson - 4 februari 2011 18:26

Utvecklingen i Egypten och Tunisien har en given plats på agendan när EU:s utrikesministrar träffas idag. Det finns en befogad oro för vad som komma skall, i synnerhet i Egypten, som har en ledande roll i regionen.

I Kairo och andra egyptiska städer tågade demonstranter igår för sjätte dagen i rad. De lät sig inte skrämmas av militärens stridsvagnar och stridsflyg. Talkörer fortsatte högljutt att kräva president Hosni Mubaraks avgång och reformer som ger frihet och demokrati.

Men vem skall leverera?

”Mubarak har krossat allt motstånd i så många år att det inte finns någon att samlas kring”, påpekade en egyptisk student för TT:s utsände.

Det är en god beskrivning av läget. En möjlig samlande gestalt är visserligen Mohamed ElBaradei – tidigare chef för FN-organet IAEA – som har återvänt till Egypten. Men bland de bäst förberedda för ett maktskifte märks även islamiströrelsen Muslimska brödraskapet, som nu kräver att en övergångsregering skall besluta om fria val.

Också i Tunisien kliver islamisterna fram.

Tusentals tunisier hyllade på söndagen islamistledaren Rached Ghannouchi när han återvände till Tunisien efter tjugo år i exil.

Mitt i hoppet om en demokratisk vår i arabvärlden tränger sig otäcka tankar på: Stärks islamismen i EU:s närmaste grannskap? Väntar en repris av hur mullorna gjorde islamisk revolution av den folkliga resningen i Iran 1979? Eller av hur Islamiska räddningsfrontens valseger i Algeriet 1991 ledde till militärkupp och åratal av stegrat våld?

Frågorna blir inte mindre brännande av Egyptens världspolitiska roll. Landet slöt ett fredsavtal med Israel 1979 och är nära allierat till USA. Islamistiskt styre i Egypten skulle väsentligt kunna ändra säkerhetsläget i regionen till det sämre. Israeliska medier domineras, förståeligt nog, helt av utvecklingen i grannlandet.

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Av Lars Olsson - 4 februari 2011 18:25

Sälj statens ägarandelar i Nordea, SBAB och TeliaSonera och dela ut pengarna till svenska folket.

Om finansmarknadsminister Peter Normans (M) bedömning att detta skulle inbringa staten i runda slängar 100 miljarder kronor är korrekt, blir det ungefär 10 000 kronor per invånare.

”En grundplåt med egna kronor skulle öka frihetsgraderna för gemene man på oanade vis”, skrev Sofia Nerbrand, ordförande i Bertil Ohlininstitutet och tidigare chefredaktör på liberala samhällsmagasinet Neo, i gårdagens Svenska Dagbladet.

Nerbrand är inte den enda och inte den första som slagits av tanken. Och det finns definitivt inga hållbara skäl för att svenska folket via staten sitter som delägare i banker, låneinstitut och teleoperatörer.

Men det finns en ännu mera lysande idé om hur pengarna från en försäljning kan komma till nytta:

Använd miljarderna för att finansiera välbehövliga satsningar på infrastruktur.

Nerbrand ser framför sig hur tusenlapparna i handen innebär ökad ekonomisk trygghet som får människor att våga starta eget eller att utbilda sig. Eller helt enkelt ger den som så önskar möjlighet att arbeta mindre under en period.

Allt det där är fullt möjligt och alldeles utmärkt. Men ganska många miljarder kommer med stor sannolikhet att användas för ökad privat konsumtion och leda till en köpfest som eldar på inflationen.

Det är inte önskvärt.

Regeringen har tänkt sig att använda pengarna från försäljningen av statliga företag till att minska statens skulder. Men den svenska statsskulden på drygt 1 100 miljarder kronor är inte exceptionellt stor, i slutet av förra året motsvarade den cirka 35 procent av BNP, bruttonationalprodukten.

Då ger situationen på arbetsmarknaden större anledning till oro. Svensk ekonomi går lysande just nu men trots detta var 407 000 personer arbetslösa eller deltog i program med aktivitetsstöd i december 2010. Det motsvarar 8,5 procent av arbetskraften.

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